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September 8, 2025

Bessent warns up to $1 trillion refund risk if Supreme Court strikes Trump's tariffs

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Bessent admits half of trade war funding is legally doomed

Treasury Secretary Scott BessentScott Bessent warned on Sept. 7, 2025 that delaying a final Supreme Court ruling until Jun. 2026 could let $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariffs be collected and complicate refunds.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a 7-4 en banc decision on Aug. 29, 2025 finding that most of the challenged tariffs exceeded the International Emergency Economic Powers Act authority.

The Federal Circuit stayed its ruling until Oct. 14, 2025, allowing the government time to appeal to the Supreme Court. During this stay, tariff collection continued.

The Supreme Court granted expedited review and scheduled oral arguments for Nov. 5, 2025 to determine the legality of the tariffs.

๐Ÿ“œConstitutional Law๐Ÿ’ฐEconomy๐Ÿ“ˆTrade

People, bills, and sources

Scott Bessent

Scott Bessent

Treasury Secretary

U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit

Appellate court

What you can do

1

civic action

Ask the Supreme Court to expedite review

The Federal Circuit left the tariffs in effect while appeal timelines run. Public input can urge a faster SCOTUS schedule to reduce collection uncertainty.

2

civic action

Ask your representative to clarify presidential tariff authority

Congress can clarify whether IEEPA or other statutes authorize tariff-setting powers to avoid future executive-legislative conflicts.

3

understanding

Press Treasury for contingency planning

Request Treasury publish scenarios showing fiscal and cash-flow steps for refunds of $750 billion to $1 trillion.