Why might Democrats view the October shutdown as politically necessary despite risks?

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Democrats face a strategic timing calculation. If they allow the subsidies to expire Dec. 31, 2025, 22 million voters experience 114% premium increases starting January 2026 - just as the next election cycle heats up. This creates a concrete, painful cost that Democrats would own. By forcing the shutdown fight now in October, Democrats create immediate pressure to extend subsidies before voters feel the pain. The shutdown hurts federal workers, but Democrats calculate that's a smaller political cost than millions losing affordable healthcare. Harris's statement that Democrats are "doing the right thing" provides cover for members facing constituent anger about the shutdown. Parties balance short-term political pain against longer-term electoral consequences.

Why might Democrats view the October shutdown as politically necessary despite risks?

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