In Goldman Sachs’ August 11, 2025 report, economists forecast core PCE inflation will rise to 3.2% by December 2025 if current tariffs remain in place, with 0.8 percentage points of that increase directly attributable to the tariffs.

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Goldman Sachs economists, led by Jan Hatzius, released a report on August 11, 2025 estimating that U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation would climb from 2.4% (absent tariffs) to 3.2% by December 2025 under existing tariff policy—implying a 0.8 percentage-point boost from tariffs alone (). Their analysis shows companies initially absorbed most of the cost (64% through June) but will pass through about two-thirds of tariff costs to consumers by October, weighing on household budgets and contradicting administration claims that foreign exporters bear the burden (, ).

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